It’s Been a Doggone Hard Investment Year
Looking Back and Into The Future
Weekly Market Outlook
By Keith Schneider and Donn Goodman
Gaugers, all of us in the MarketGauge family wish you a healthy, happy, and peaceful New Year with much prosperity as you start 2023. Thank you for reading our weekly Outlook. We are pleased to have you involved with us.
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Potential Positive
After a bad year, there is a high probability that the next year may be positive. While we are not expecting this to occur, especially with lingering high interest rates and a hawkish Fed, the statistics nonetheless may bear out. Two negative years in a row is very rare. See the chart below:
For 2023 we remain optimistic. But as someone once shared with me, “Hope for the best but expect the worst.” So we offer one positive chart that we hope turns out to be accurate:
A few days ago, one of our avid readers contacted me. He wanted to let me know that our commentary over the past few months had kept him from making some potential big missteps. Especially important was the warning about not getting too exuberant in October when we urged patience and not to be overly aggressive. He mentioned that the Big View bullet points suggesting we were getting close to a “RISK OFF” condition in our Alpha Rotation model were the reason he decided to sit on the sidelines.
I appreciate his candid and sincere comments. However, I want to remind (him) and all of you that we started warning about what lay ahead as far back as in the fall of 2021 and early 2022.
Our guidance and advice were spot on. As I pointed out to this new reader, we began forewarning a long time ago. Just to review some of the articles (you can go through the archives and read these articles again)
Also, we give some predictions (from others) on how 2023 may play out.
If you have any questions or wish to discuss access to a MarketGauge subscription or asset management information, please contact Rob Quinn, Chief Strategy Consultant at rob@marketgauge.com or (407) 770-7637
